MOVING AVERAGE INDICATOR – EXAMPLES AND EXPLANATION

Explanation & Definition:

Moving averages are the most common indicator in technical analysis. The moving average itself can also be the most important indicator, as it serves as the basis of countless other indicators, such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

A moving average works to smooth price by averaging price fluctuations into a single line that ebbs and flows with them. It is based on past prices and is therefore a “lagging” indicator. It is often used as part of trend following systems and occasionally as a support/resistance line in its own right.

TYPES OF MOVING AVERAGES

Simple moving average

The simple moving average (SMA) and the exponential moving average (EMA) are the two most common types of the indicator.

The SMA is a basic average of the price over the specified time period. For example, when drawing a 20-period SMA on a chart, the previous 20 closing prices are added and divided by the number of periods (20) to determine what the current value of the SMA should be. The series of different points is joined together to form a line.

In addition, the price in an uptrend will tend to be above the moving averages as various lower prices are baked into the reading from earlier in the trend. For the same reasons, in a downtrend, the moving average will be negatively sloped and the price will be below the moving average.

Periods of 50, 100 and 200 are commonly used to estimate longer term market trends. This is especially true since it is the daily chart, the most common time compression. These indicators are closely watched by market participants, and one often sees sensitivity to the levels themselves. A decisive break of a well-tracked moving average is often considered important by technical analysts.

A crossing of a “fast” SMA above or below a “slow SMA” can also signify an official change in trend. In the context of 50-200 period moving averages, the 50 period would be considered fast as it is more responsive to price. The 200-period is slow because it is less responsive. The 100 period would be considered slow compared to the 50 period, but fast compared to the 200 period.

Exponential Moving Average

The exponential moving average (EMA) is preferred by some traders. Unlike the SMA, it has multiplication factors that give more weight to more recent data points than earlier data points. As a result, the EMA will react more quickly to price changes. This can give a trader an earlier signal compared to an SMA.

Similar to SMAs, periods of 50, 100, and 200 EMAs are often graphed by traders tracking price movements over months or years.

As for short-term moving averages, 12-day and 26-day EMAs have been popularized by the MACD indicator.

EMAs tend to be more common among day traders who trade in and out of positions quickly, as they change more quickly with price. For the same reason, EMAs may also be more common in volatile markets.

Where is the best place to trade moving averages?

As an experienced trader, I can recommend the MetaTrader 4/5 trading platform. This is widely used around the world and popular with almost 80% of private traders. You can use this platform on any device and set many indicators as you like. Multi-functional charting is also possible.

USE OF MOVING AVERAGES

Since moving averages are lagging indicators, they should not be misinterpreted as instruments that can predict future price movements with any resolution.

For example, by the time a moving average transitions from sloping in one direction or another to flattening out, the price action has usually already changed due to the lagging nature of the moving average.

For those who rely on support and resistance strategies (or as part of a strategy) to generate entry points, if you are also waiting for a moving average crossover to confirm the signal, you will likely have already missed it. (Unless, of course, it comes back to the level by which time the moving average(s) may have changed again) Moving averages can be useful for confirming the direction of a trend or getting an idea of its magnitude. But they should play a minor role in a general trading system.

Moving Averages Crossings

Some traders use them as support and resistance levels. And some combine different moving averages and use crossings of different averages to confirm trend shifts and entry points. But as with all indicators, the different analysis tools and modes should be matched to increase the likelihood that a particular trade will work.

Moving averages are best suited for use in trending markets. Traders should pay attention to the direction of the moving average as well as its slope and rate of change. Trend changes and momentum shifts can be easily picked up in moving averages and are often easier to spot than when looking at price candlesticks alone.

Often, traders trade only in the direction of the trend determined by the moving average or series of moving averages. For example, if the 50, 100, and 200 period moving averages are aligned as positively sloped, the trader may bias all of his positions to the long side.

Examples of trading with moving averages (strategies)

As mentioned in the previous section, the moving averages themselves are best not used in isolation to generate trading signals on their own. Therefore, the system will rely on moving averages. However, it will also be applied in the context of support and resistance. In other words, we will trade around likely turning points in the market in the general direction dictated by our moving averages.

Support in the chart by the moving average

Support levels are areas where prices will fall and potentially bounce off of long trades. Similarly, resistance levels are areas where prices will rise and possibly reverse from short trades.

Our moving averages are applied using a crossover strategy. We will choose two different time frames – in this case 10 and 42 – and interpret them as confirmation of trend changes.

Why 10 and 42? They are arbitrary and no better than, say, 7 and 51 or 12 and 37. But 10 periods, when applied to the daily chart, can be interpreted as encompassing the last two weeks of price data. (There are five days per trading week.) Forty-two periods correspond to about two months of price data, since there are about 21 trading days per month.

We will also use a simple moving average instead of an exponential moving average, although this can be changed as well. The 10-period SMA will be our “fast” moving average, as it is more reactive to price than our 42-period “slow” SMA. When price is in an uptrend, the fast SMA will follow price faster than the slow EMA.

So when the 10-period SMA crosses the 42-period SMA, it is a bullish sign. We will then tend to go long. When the 10-period SMA crosses below the 42-period SMA, it is interpreted as a bearish sign. We will then focus more on short trades.

Rules for the moving average strategy:

Long trades

  1. 10-period SMA above 42-period SMA
  2. Bounce off a recently reached support level, which was determined based on previous price movements

Short trades

  1. 10-period SMA below 42-period SMA
  2. Bounce off a recent resistance level determined by previous price action

Trade exits

  1. When the moving averages cross again to invalidate the trend, or
  2. A break of the support or resistance level of interest

We will apply this system/strategy to the EUR/USD currency pair.

Trade #1 EUR/USD

The EUR/USD begins to experience resistance around the 1,085 level. This price is repeatedly supported and pushed back up, forming a clear support area.

Therefore, as soon as we see a hint of resistance and a change in trend – i.e. a fast SMA running below the slow SMA – we will take a short trade.

We see this and mark the point below with the red arrow. The candle on which this change is confirmed will be the one corresponding to the crossover.

Long trade with a moving average at support

The trade will be closed once it is confirmed that the trend has ended, which is indicated by the white arrow. Overall, this trade rose from 1.09445 to 1.13002, which is a gain of about 4%.

Trade #2 EUR/USD

After that, we see the same type of setup – a bounce at 1.117 and a bearish SMA crossover, which gives the signal to enter on falling prices.

Moving average short trade

In the end, the downside was fairly flat and price climbed back up to the resistance level where another crossover was generated. This trade closed at about break-even or a very small loss.

Trade #3 GBP/USD

Moving Average Short Trade GBPUSD

This trade in the GBP/USD would have proved to be particularly profitable. After a longer sideways phase with falling highs (marked by the trend line), a big sell-off finally occurred. With a cross of the moving average, one could have made a very large profit.

The targets of the trade must be set by each trader. For example, some traders look for the target at the next high or low. Other traders only tighten the stop loss and thus secure profits. Overall, you can see from this example that the moving average should not be considered alone, but in conjunction with the chart or other indicators.

Conclusion about the moving average

The moving average is an extremely popular indicator used in securities trading. Not only can it act as a standalone indicator, but it forms the basis for several others.

There are numerous types of moving averages. There is the simple moving average (SMA), where all prices are averaged in the same way. The exponential moving average (EMA) weights only the most recent data.

Moving averages work best in trend following systems. When used appropriately, they provide simple insight into the direction of a trend, its magnitude, and its rate of change. However, for those who prefer to trade price reversals, using crossover strategies with moving averages is also quite viable.

Nevertheless, moving averages should never be used in isolation for traders who are simply weighing technical analysis due to their lagging nature, but should be used as part of a broader system.

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